Hannah Gruffudd, MMath, PhD, MIMA

Research Scientist

Email: hannah.gruffudd@forestry.gsi.gov.uk

Tel: +44 (0)1970 622351

Address:
Edward Llwyd
Penglais Campus
Aberystwyth
Ceredigion SY23 3DA

Hannah Gruffudd graduated in Mathematics at the University of Wales, Aberystwyth in 2007 and completed her PhD in applied Mathematics in 2012 at Aberystwyth University.

Hannah joined Forest Research in 2011 to work on the REPHRAME (Research Extending Plant Health Risk And Monitoring Evaluation) project; a three year project part funded by European Union Seventh Framework Programme and involving partners in Austria, France Germany, Portugal, Spain, China and Norway.

Hannah is the main scientist at Forest Research working on the modelling of interactions between tree pests, climate factors and forest growth.

Current role

Research Scientist

Hannah is a mathematical modeler, working as part of a team of scientists within the Forest Mensuration, Modelling and Forecasting Science Group.  Hannah’s main contribution to the work of the team involves developing mathematical models forming fundamental components of more complex models of forest growth, wood production and carbon balance.  These models are needed to predict long-term trends in timber availability and the development of forest growing stock, including carbon stocks, across GB.

Hannah also continues to lead modelling work within FR on interactions between pests, diseases, climate and forest growth.

Hannah is based in Aberystwyth as part of FR’s Wales Research Unit.

Current projects

  • Development of fundamental models of stem volume
    Developing improved single tree volume estimation models for both coniferous and broadleaved tree species.  The new models are specifically designed to provide more reliable estimates, particularly for larger trees that might be expected under alternative silvicultural management regimes.
  • Modelling Pine Wilt Disease
    Working with partners in Germany and Portugal to model the risk of expression of pine wilt disease (PWD) under projected climatic scenarios.
  • Testing of soil carbon model predictive performance
    Testing a recently-developed, improved sub-model of soil carbon dynamics (intended for incorporation into the FR CSORT and CARBINE models), by meta-analysis of model predictions against published estimates of soil carbon stocks and CO2 fluxes.

Affiliations and achievements

  • Member of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications

Main recent publications and knowledge exchange activities

Peer-reviewed journal articles

Gruffudd HR, Jenkins TAR and Evans HF  (2016)  Using an evapo-transpiration model (ETpN) to predict the risk and expression of symptoms of pine wilt disease (PWD) across Europe, Biological Invasions 18(10): 2823-2840. DOI:10.1007/s10530-016-1173-7

Douglas RJ and Whittle-Gruffudd HR (2016)  Nonexistence results for relaxation spectra with compact support.  Inverse Problems 32(3)

Scientific conferences: presentations or posters

Thomas Schröder and Hannah Gruffudd (2016).  Risk Assessment for the pinewood nematode in Germany considering climate change.  German Plant Protection Conference, 20-23 September 2016, Halle, Germany

Hannah Gruffudd, Tom Jenkins and Hugh Evans (2015).  Process Modelling to Predict Future Impacts of Pests.  IMPACT project final conference, 12 May, 2015, Bangor, Wales

Gruffudd H, Evans HF and Jenkins T (2013).  Using an evapo-transpiration model to predict the current and future range and severity of pine wilt disease caused by pine wood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus in Europe. IUFRO/REPHRAME International Conference on Pine Wilt Disease, Braunschweig, Germany, 2013