Climatic warming

 

The UKCIP02 predicted changes in temperature state that overall the future climate of the UK will become warmer:

• By the 2080s, the average annual temperature in the UK may rise by between 2°C - 4.5°C
• There will be greater warming in the south and east than in the north and west
• There may be greater warming in summer and autumn than in winter and spring
• High summer temperatures will become more frequent, whilst very cold winters will become increasingly rare.

Temperature is a key environmental variable affecting many processes relating to tree distribution, growth and function. The predicted long term changes to temperature are likely to affect important tree species in a variety of ways.

• Winter cold injury may become less frequent
• The changes in spring flushing data that have already been observed will continue to advance, however may make some species more susceptible to the risk of spring frost injury
• The planting of southern provenances in anticipation of climate change should be avoided, because of the potential damage of unseasonal frosts
• Autumn frost may become more damaging in England because of later hardening
• Increasing heat and drought in the south and east can be expected to increase losses, particularly among newly established trees and mature trees in hedgerows and urban environments
• Defects in conifer timber due to crack are also likely to increase in England.

Frost damage in young tree

Frost damage in oak - reduction in timber quality