Impacts of climate change on the distribution of plant species found in native beech woodland

 

Climate change: Impacts on UK forests - Chapter 12
By Pam Berry, Terry Dawson, Paula Harrison and Richard Pearson

Key findings

• The SPECIES model (Spatial Estimator of the Climate Impacts on the Envelope of Species) is based on a neural network, using processed climate data to simulate the natural distribution of species; the network is ‘trained’ using European species distribution data, with the result that under future scenarios, it is not required to make predictions outside its range of ‘experience’.
• SPECIES has been used to predict the impacts of climate change on the distribution of beech, and the two ground vegetation species, wood anemone and sanicle, which are components of important subcommunities in native beech woodland. 
• The observed distribution of beech woodland is wider than predicted using the SPECIES model as a result of planting outside its natural range, which may be limited in Britain due to its relatively recent introduction; the model was trained on the European distribution, which essentially reflects its spread during the Holocene.
• The SPECIES model predicts that climate change is likely to result in climate space for beech disappearing in south and east England by the 2050s, but suitable conditions developing in northern England and east and west Scotland.
• The UK is latitudinally central within wood anemone’s range, only being absent from the northern islands of Scotland in its modelled distribution; there is no loss of climate space in any of the scenarios, and the model predicts that the species has the potential to expand into the Hebrides and Shetland Isles by the 2050s.
• The lack of predicted direct effects of climate change on climate space does not mean that there will be no changes to natural vegetation communities; indirect effects acting through changing competition are likely to have impacts on the overstorey and understorey alike.
• Natural woodlands in the UK face a dynamic future, both as a function of natural events leading to changes in the character and composition of woodlands, and because of the influence of man through management, conservation and land use policies.

Next: Chapter 13 - Challenges ahead: how should the forestry sector respond?

Previous: Chapter 11 - Modelling the future climatic suitability of plantation forest tree species