Climate change impacts: storms

 

Climate change: Impacts on UK forests - Chapter 4
By Chris Quine and Barry Gardiner

Key findings

• The UK has a severe wind climate, with the potential for afforestation often limited by wind; current forest management, particularly in the uplands is therefore adapted to extremes of wind climate.
• Since 1945, there has been notable damage to some forests in the UK, on average, every other year. 
• Current predictions suggest a modest increase in mean wind speed, while the frequency of gales may increase; the predictions of both are tentative and generally within the magnitude of current inter-annual variability. 
• Although the predictions suggest little impact in terms of the wind climate, uncertainty over the frequency of extremes, and the sensitivity of the damage threshold to methods of forest management, indicates no room for complacency. 
• Climate change could have indirect consequences for wind risk management, including: changes to the frequency and duration of waterlogging; increased frequency of wet snow leading to more snow damage; larger leaf area resulting in increased wind resistance and thus vulnerability. 
• No major adaptation to current management practice is recommended at this stage, but continuation of ‘best practice’ is appropriate, with review as climate predictions are refined. A number of key points should be considered for site-specific estimates of risk:
  • There are dangers in applying solutions from elsewhere without a careful appraisal of the similarity of the two situations.
  • For stands at high risk the potential options will tend to be limited, while for stands at low risk the options will be wide and goals other than risk-minimising will take precedence; it is those sites at moderate risk where the greatest potential exists to either exacerbate the risk by poor decision-making, or to reduce it through careful management; existing wind-risk models provide guidance.
  • Careful appraisal of future scenarios will be required, to reassess the strategy of continued wind risk-sensitive management and to identify whether more substantial changes in practice are warranted.

Next: Chapter 5 - Implications of climate change: soil and water

Previous: Chapter 3 - Climate change and damage to trees caused by extremes of temperature