Monitoring for protection

 

Monitoring is an essential element of any adaptation or mitigation strategy. Information relevant to climate change monitoring is available from a range of sources including the Forest Condition Survey and the Intensive Forest Monitoring network. The official climate change indicators that have been developed for the UK include both direct climatic measures (i.e. trends in temperature, sunshine and rainfall patterns), and a range of ‘response’ indicators, three of which are directly relevant to forests and woodland:

• Health of beech trees: the data are derived from the Forest Condition Survey, in which crown transparency is assessed. Beech is relatively drought sensitive and direct effects of climate may be apparent. However, any trend in crown density is more likely to be related indirectly to weather through its influence on seed production, which is strongly correlated with reduced canopy development in beech. Hot, dry summers generally promote seed production the following year, particularly if preceded by a wet summer. To date, no significant trend is apparent.
• Flushing date of oak: flushing date is highly dependent on temperature in spring and has already advanced by 10–15 days relative to the 1950s.
• Incidence of outdoor fires: outdoor fires are more commonplace in hot, dry summers, such as those of 1976 and 1995.